Even more so than it already has been


After delegates confirmed an OPEC+ meeting for next Monday, there have been many reports flying about on speculation about what will be discussed.

Earlier, RIA reported that 10 mil bpd worth of output cuts is on the table. Now, the WSJ is reporting that roughly 6 mil bpd worth of output cuts will be discussed - adding that Russia will only cut if the US also contributes.

Meanwhile, you get remarks from Trump continuing to insist that only Saudi Arabia and Russia are the ones who are going to be doing the heavy lifting.

And as I write this up, the latest news is that Russian energy minister Alexander Novak is yet to even confirm his attendance for next week's virtual meeting. What a mess.

In any case, I would argue that we are likely to see some form of cuts being delivered but it is going to be a joint-effort where the US also has to contribute in some form.

If Trump isn't going to get shale producers to scale back - or more of the case that he can't - then the only other way to get Russia to join in is to lift sanctions.

Otherwise, there's no reason to expect why Saudi Arabia and Russia would be so willing to help US shale producers when they can just bite the bullet and play the long game.