The Federal Reserve's FOMC meet on 19 June 2019. I have a few snippets of what to expect to come.

Getting the ball rolling:

Bank of America / Merrill Lynch

  • US market "fully committed to a July cut"

And so recommend considering the opposite

  • "hedges for a positive G-20 and a hawkish Fed surprise"

Citing low expectations, one-sided positioning

  • "any positive headline in relation to the trade negotiation could see a pop in yields"

UBS

  • Fed outlook pricing "remains skewed quite dovishly"
  • UBS add that this despite Q2 economic data "on a solid footing"
  • market-implied long-run real rates appear too high
  • it takes fewer FOMC members to lower 2020 and long-run median fed funds forecasts than to lower the 2019 median to a cut

Oh, these earlier also: