January US non-farm payrolls data

nonfarm payrolls
  • Prior was 312K (revised to 222K)
  • Strongest since Feb 2018
  • Best four-month period of jobs growth since Sept 2016
  • Private payrolls 296K versus 206K last month and 175K expected
  • Unemployment rate 4.0% vs 3.9% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.9%
  • Participation rate 63.2% versus 63.0% expected -- highest since 2014
  • average hourly earnings m/m +0.1% versus +0.3% expected (prior +0.4%)
  • average hourly earnings y/y +3.2% versus 3.2% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.5 versus 34.5 expected
  • U6 underemployment rate 8.1% versus 7.6% prior

There were some big revisions here that skew the current month. The unemployment rate and underemployment rate both rose as participation climbed. The jump in underemployment was particularly notable.

Wages also missed the market and that will take some of the shine off the report. Initially the dollar move has been small despite the massive beat.