— Japan Mar Prelim Coincident Index -3.2 Pt M/M Vs Feb Rev +1.3 Pts
— Japan Mar Coincident Index MNI Forecast -3.2 Pt at 103.6
— Japan Mar Prelim Coincident Index Posts 1st M/M Fall in 5 Mo
— Japan Mar Prelim Leading CI -4.5 Pts M/M Vs Feb +2.6
— Japan March Leading Index Posts 1st M/M Fall in 5 Mo
— Cabinet Office Leaves Overall View: CI Shows Economy is Improving
— Cabinet Office: March Fall Due to Impact of March 11 Quake

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s coincident composite index (CI), which
reflects current business conditions, slumped a record 3.2 points to
103.6 in March, posting the first monthly drop in five months,
preliminary Cabinet Office data showed on Wednesday.

It followed a revised 1.3-point rise to 106.8 in February.

The March figure matched the consensus forecast for a 3.2-point
fall to 103.6 in a survey by Market News International.

Eight out of the 11 sub-indexes comprising the coincident index
fell in March. The eight included industrial output, shipments of
investment goods, retail sales and sales at wholes levels.

The index was set at 100 in the 2005 base year.

Based on the March results, the Cabinet Office maintained its
overall assessment, saying that the composite index “indicates that the
economy is improving.”

But it also noted that the March CI and its three-month moving
average fell in the wake of the March 11 earthquake disaster that
disrupted supply chains and dampened consumer sentiment.

The government may downgrade its view next month to say the economy
is at a standstill if the April coincident index shows a decline again,
a Cabinet Office official told reporters.

Other details from the latest data follow:

The leading composite index, which measures the state of the
economy three months ahead: March 99.5 (-4.5 points m/m) vs. February
revised 104.0 (+2.6 points m/m), posting the first m/m fall in five
months.

The lagging CI, which reflects economic conditions three months
ago: March 88.8 (-1.7 points m/m) vs. February revised 90.5 (+2.2
points), marking the first fall in two months.

The diffusion index (DI) of coincident indicators: March 11.0 vs.
February 90.0, falling below the bust-and-boom line of 50 for the first
time in four months.

A reading above 50 points indicates an economic expansion, while a
reading below 50 indicates contraction. The further above or below 50,
the faster the expansion or contraction.

The diffusion index of leading indicators: March 40.0 vs. February
90.9, slipping below the key 50 level for the first time in five months.

The lagging DI: March 25.0 vs. February 75.0.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

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