— Japan Nov Industrial Output -2.6% Y/Y; MNI Fcast -0.8%
— METI Forecast Index: Japan Dec Output +4.8% M/M, Jan +3.4%
— METI Keeps View: Japan Output Appears To Be Flat

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s industrial output fell at a
faster-than-expected pace in November, as the global slowdown and the
persistently strong yen threatened the sustainability of Japan’s
export-led recovery, government data showed Wednesday.

Production at the nation’s factories and mines fell a seasonally
adjusted 2.6% in November from the previous month after gaining 2.2% in
November, bringing the industrial output index down to 90.1, way below
the pre-disaster level of 97.9 in February.

The November headline figure was much worse the median forecast for
a 0.8% fall by economists in a Market News International survey.

The November rise was also below the 0.1% m/m decline predicted in
the ministry’s forecast survey released last month.

But METI’s latest survey of firms’ forecasts showed that overall
production is expected to rise 4.8% m/m in December — revised up from
the 2.7% gain estimated in the previous survey – before rising 3.4% in
January (first estimate).

Based on the latest data and the outlook for the next two months,
METI maintained its overall assessment, saying: “Industrial production
appears to be flat.”

The environment for Japan’s export-driven recovery does not bode
well for industry production.

The latest trade data showed that global exports fell 4.5% on the
year to Y5.20 trillion in November, marking a second straight month of
declines.

In November, output of transportation equipment — mostly
automobiles — fell 9.5% from the previous month, marking the first fall
in two months.

In addition, production of information and telecom equipment fell
23.7% in November from the previous month.

Compared with year-earlier levels, Japan’s industrial production in
November declined 1.5%, marking the first fall in two months, after
rising 0.1% in October.

Other details from the latest data:

Shipments: Nov -1.5% m/m Vs Oct +0.2%, the first fall in two
months.

Inventories: Nov -0.8% m/m Vs Oct +0.9%, also the first fall in two
months.

The inventory-to-shipments ratio: Nov -1.7% vs Oct -0.9%

tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

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