Kuroda and Nakaso appear to have the numbers for a comfortable ‘Yes’ vote. Kikuo Iwata, though, is seen as having 119 votes (he needs 118 for a majority). Its a close call.
There hasn’t been any change in the numbers since we wrote about this extensively on Wednesday, lets take another look:
LDP+New Komeito: 102
Your Party: 12
Japan Restoration Party: 3
New Renaissance Party: 2
That’s 119 ‘Yes’ votes for Iwata (assuming all party members vote according to their party’s stated intention …).
The ‘No’ voters are:
DPJ (87 seats/votes), People’s Life Party (8), Japan Communist Party (6), Social Democratic Party (4). These are all confirmed ‘no’ voters – again assuming party members vote according to their party’s stated intentions).
The parties we don’t have an indication for are: Green Wind (5), the People’s New Party (2) and those members listed as Independents (5).
So, as you can see, it appears Iwata has enough support to get through, but it is very close.
The vote is scheduled for 10am Tokyo time, 0100GMT.
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What does this all mean for yen crosses?
If Iwata fails I expect a kneejerk rapid selloff in yen crosses.
On the other hand, if Iwata succeeds … well this eventuality appears to be widely expected and I think could well be priced in. I think a rally might well be sold into and yen crosses come under pressure anyway.
