That's not....great

The shares of JNJ tell the story, down to $161 from $169 at the close yesterday.

  • 72% effective in US portion of the trial
  • 57% effective in South African portion
  • 85% effective in preventing severe disease
  • Intends to file in early Feb for US emergency use authorization
  • Expects to meet 2021 supply commitments

The nightmare scenario here is that covid never goes away and continues to mutate until it's a situation like the regular flu, where you're getting a shot every year but it's only moderately effective. Especially worrisome is the South African number. I mean, it's 57% better than nothing but not what we're hoping for.

The company said on Jan 15 that the company expected it to be more than 70% effective.

On the other hand, a guy who knows way more about this thing than me calls it 'wonderful news' and rightfully points out that it's a one-shot vaccine that's much easier to transport and administer than the MRNA vaccines.

johnson and johnson

The supply comments are also great news. Johnson & Johnson is a goliath of a company and last Sept it said it had plans to deliver more than 1 billion doses by the end of the year. Some more-recent comments highlighted delays but only by about 2 months.

Update: 100% effective against hospitalizations and deaths