JP Morgan favours long yen, franc in the current market environment

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

According to the firm's executive director, Laura Fitzsimmons


Arguing that "in this environment, trying to short those currencies (yen and franc) can be very dangerous" and that now isn't the time to be long on high-beta currencies i.e. yield currencies. Adding that the aussie and kiwi may be a bit of an exception in terms of recent performance but they don't view it as being sustainable.

The rationale for the positioning in the yen and franc mainly comes from a slowdown in the global economy with concerns surrounding Europe and Asia still present amid the trade war between US and China.

Their argument isn't really a surprise to many market participants but it will also hinge quite a bit on how the dollar will look to perform in my view. There's no doubting that in the long-term (as we deal with a slowing global economy) that haven currencies should outperform but I reckon there's value to be sought after in the greenback if other major economies are struggling and the Fed is only seeking a "one and done" rate cut move.

The caveat of course is that Trump has already given markets the signal that we're now headed towards a currency war and if his influence towards the Fed begins to grow, that will add to a stronger argument for the yen and franc amid the backdrop above.

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