JP Morgan lifts one-year EUR/CHF estimate to 1.19 from 1.15

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

According to a research note written by Paul Meggyesi and Thomas Anthonj


This of course follows the EUR/CHF's move towards 1.20 at the end of last week. The note says that the move "surprised" analysts who were mostly "expecting the pair to be broadly stable in the mid-high teens".

However, they still don't believe that fundamentally anything has changed to "warrant flipping outright bearish on the Swiss franc" - as they say that the SNB is still expected to tighten policy "not too far behind the ECB".

They also argue that the Swiss current account surplus remains extremely high and that the franc itself is now moderately "cheap" compared to long-term averages. Adding that they do not see a compelling basis for "a major and sustained depreciation in the Swiss franc".

Psychologically, the 1.2000 remains a relatively massive level in my view. It'll take a lot of convincing for buyers to firmly push through that and put off those who have been long in the pair since the mid-teens from taking profits.

But just like all other psychological levels, once it does give way, expect things to pick up very quickly.

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