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JP Morgan Macro Outlook

  • Our central outlook is that the past two years' disinflationary drags are fading, promoting stronger real growth and higher inflation.
  • However, we see a number of factors (tight EM credit conditions, global slack, and DM private sector caution) limiting this acceleration from breaking the upper bounds of the past five years' inflation and growth.
  • The recent pickup in manufacturing growth and CPI inflation, accompanied by rising activity and sentiment surveys, challenges our constrained reflation view and suggests risks are skewed to the upside of our forecast.
  • There are also indications of the constraints that lie ahead as global consumption and EM industrial activity gains look poised to moderate and core inflation readings do not follow headline higher.