JP Morgan on the US: "We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March"
JPM on the new claims for unemployment insurance data out from the US on Thursday.
(ICYIM, data is here:" US initial jobless claims surge 3283K vs 1640K estimate)
- We expect unemployment to peak near 8.5%.
- Our model of the risk of the recession beginning within one year based on the economic data jumped to 90% after the report
- We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March
- Additionally, the Transportation Security Administration has released daily data on the number of travellers passing through TSA checkpoints. The number of travellers was down 89% relative to last year through March 25