JPM on the new claims for unemployment insurance data out from the US on Thursday.

(ICYIM, data is here:" US initial jobless claims surge 3283K vs 1640K estimate)

JPM:

  • We expect unemployment to peak near 8.5%.
  • Our model of the risk of the recession beginning within one year based on the economic data jumped to 90% after the report
  • We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March
  • Additionally, the Transportation Security Administration has released daily data on the number of travellers passing through TSA checkpoints. The number of travellers was down 89% relative to last year through March 25