JP Morgan with a USD/CAD forecast - higher into Q1 2020
The analysts at JPM see USD/CAD to 1.3600 in the first quarter of next year
- to 1.3800 after that
Citing for their soft CAD view:
- weak Q4 Canadaian economic growth
- underlying economy possible "more vulnerable than what 2019's solid growth made it appear"
- Projects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in January
JPM is selective on how the CAD will weaken against other currencies:
- likely to underperform "against key low-yielders" such as the euro and CHF
- "to hold in against other cyclical G10 currencies like AUD which are facing their own internal headwinds"
JPM on risks to the view:
- USMCA developments
- potential leadership change at the BoC
- oil supply