JPMorgan on how far the Canadian dollar could fall on NAFTA implosion

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

JPMorgan says it will be a long fall

If the US leaves NAFTA, the Canadian dollar will take a beating, JPMorgan analysts predict.

They say the loonie would fall nearly 10% in a worst case scenario where a deal breakdown also leads to 25% tariffs on autos.

"The worst-case NoFTA could mean USD/CAD at 1.43 as the market prices a 'safety-net' 50bp cut by BoC," they wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg. "A potential overshoot would also probably be unbound and thus larger versus the best-case scenario, given the large unknowns."

A rise to 1.43 would be the highest since 2016.

On the flipside, a deal would push USD/CAD down to 1.24, they say.                

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