Consumer sentiment data for July 2019 from the University of Michigan

  • Prior was 98.2
  • Current conditions 111.1 vs 111.9 prior
  • Expectations 90.1 vs 89.3 prior
  • 1-year inflation 2.6% vs 2.7% prior
  • 5-10 year inflation 2.6% vs 2.3% prior

The 5-10 year inflation metric has been a mess for months. It's chopped between 2.3% and 2.6% three times., so I don't think it's any kind of signal.

As for the headline, it's been around the same levels for most of the year after recovering from the year-end fear.

U Mich