June 2020 Philly Fed business outlook survey

Details (to come)

  • New orders +16.7 vs -25.7 prior
  • Employment -4.3 vs -15.3 prior
  • Prices paid +11.1 vs +3.2 prior
  • Six-month index +75 vs +49.7 prior (30 year high)

I'm puzzled at why so many economists thought this report and the Empire Fed would be negative. The surveys are on the month-to-month rate of change so it's basically about whether June would be better than May. After the crushing declines in April/May, some rebound is no surprise.

Overall, 46% of firms reported better general business in the month while 19% said it was worse.

This special question gives a better sense of where the industry is overall, showing the bulk of firms operating at about 75% of capacity compared to 85% last year. Just 2.2% are operating in the 90-100% range versus 37% a year ago.

Philly Fed