US Q2 GDP was the big data point overnight

  • Rose 2.3% q/q annualised (vs. 2.5% expected)
  • Q1 growth was revised up to +0.6% q/q, from -0.2%

The 'headline' result (+2.3%) was weaker than expected ... but the composition of growth was more favourable:

  • Household consumption +2.9% (vs. expected +2.7%, and the prior was +1.7% in Q1)
  • Net exports showed some signs of recovery, added 0.1ppts to GDP growth (prior, for Q1, they subtracted 1.9ppts)
  • Government spending rose 0.8%
  • Business investment .... mmmm .... sluggish

Net - the data confirmed the gradual recovery story during Q2 & are supportive of the moderate growth described by the FOMC

US initial jobless claims rose marginally to 267K (expected 270K)

  • The 4-week moving average is at 275K from 279K


  • IMF says the country is precluded from receiving additional bailout assistance from the IMF
  • The IMF will continue to participate in bailout negotiations, but may not agree to participate in the new bailout until a later stage
  • IMF cites rules that a country has to be able to show that it has the institutional and political capacity" to implement reforms, and that "there is a high probability that the member's public debt is sustainable in the medium term"... say Greece meets neither

Germany - HICP inflation +0.3% m/m for July, as expected, and + 0.1% y/y

German unemployed +9k (expected was a -5k); unemployment steady at 6.4% (vs. expected 6.4%)