For the week starting Nov 22, 2015

Next week the US will celebrate Thanksgiving on Thursday. All markets will be closed. On Friday, the stock market will close early at 1:00 PM. You can expect the market to be subdued on Wednesday too although from what I can see, the stock and bond markets will have a complete day. The forex market never sleeps (well rarely during the week no matter what), but that does not mean it will not be Q-U-I-E-T. So be aware and prepared. It could be a snoozer.

Below are the key events and releases for next week:

Saturday Nov. 21, 2015

  • FOMC member Williams speaks. Although he is on a panel discussion about monetary policy at Univ of California, I commented earlier this week, that the Fed officials will continue to walk the line of "liftoff, but...." Employment has reached the goal, trajectory of rates will be shallow, expect inflation to pick up after transitory effects fail. And indeed at some point commodities will bounce and there will be a rise from a low base. That is what happens. What they say does not matter. Employment is next key event.
  • ECB Coeure will also be speaking at Berkeley. Although the event at Cal Berkeley is certainly a big deal, the Cal Bears take on the Stanford Cardinal in a big football game with Rose Bowl implications (this is American football folks). There might be more interest in it vs. the central bank battle (I may be wrong).

Monday Nov 23, 2015

  • French, German< EUR Flash Mfg/Service PMI
  • US Existing Home sales. 5.4M vs 5.55M last

Tuesday Nov 24, 2015

  • German IFO Business Climate 108.2 vs 108.2 last, Current Assessment 112.4 vs 112.6, IFO expectations 104.0 vs 103.8 last
  • Bank of England Inflation Report. BOE Carney and Chief Economist Haldane testify on the central banks latest inflation report.
  • 2nd revision to US GDP 3Q. Est 2.1% vs 1.5%. Consumption 3.2% vs 3.2%. Core PCE QoQ 1.3% vs 1.3%
  • US Conf Board Consumer Confidence 99.3 vs 97.6 last
  • BOJ Meeting Minutes

Wednesday, Nov 25, 2015

  • US Durable Goods Orders for Oct. Est 1.6% vs -1.2%, Ex Trans +0.3% vs -0.3%, Cap Goods ship nondef ex air +0.3% vs +0.5%
  • Jobless Claims (a day early because of Thanksgiving). 271K vs 271K
  • US New Home Sales 500K vs 468K last

Thursday, Nov 26, 2015

  • Thanksgiving Holiday in the US. All markets closed

Friday, Nov 27, 2015

  • UK 2nd estimate GDP QoQ +0.5% vs +0.5%
  • US stock markets closed at 1 PM. Bond Market recommended closed at 2 PM (why don't they do this every week?)