Key US economic data out at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT

The US unemployment report will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT with the expectation of a rise of 182K va 211K last month in NFP jobs. Other expectations include:

  • Unemployment rate: 4.4% est vs 4.4% last
  • Avg hourly earnings MoM at 0.2% vs 0.3 last. YoY 2.6% est vs 2.5% last
  • Private payroll: 175K est vs 194K last
  • Manufacturning jobs: 5K est. vs 6 K last
  • Underemployment rate was 8.6% last month (no estimate).

Yesterday ADP employment showed a strong gain of 253K The PMI manufacturing employment report showed an increase to 53.5 from 52.0.

The market is likely expecting a solid number.

Of course the market may gyrate all around on this day. So understanding technical levels is key. Here are some key levels to eye.

EURUSD:

On the downside (stronger report).

  • 1.1195-98. 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green lines in chart above)
  • 1.11609-71: Key swing area going back to May 18th (see red circles
  • 1.1125. 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and old trend line. The price fell below this trend line earlier this week, but then reestablished the line
  • 1.1103-1.1108. Low for the week and 38.2% of the move up from the May low.

On the topside.

  • 1.1233. This was a high on May 26th and a swing high in yesterday's trading
  • 1.1249-56. Swing highs form May 25 and yesterday
  • 1.12678. High from May 23rd.
  • 1.1300. This was the spike high from the US election day (November 2017)
  • 1.1326. Swing high from Sept 8 2016
  • 1.1365. Swing high from Aug 18, 2016.

USDJPY:

For the USDJPY:

On the upside (stronger report):

  • 111.73. Swing levels (the high today was close to that level before moving back lower
  • 111.94-112.00 Swing highs from May 25th and natural resistance
  • 112.125: HIgh from May 24
  • 112.266. Key 100 day MA. A move above that level, opens the upside for the USDJPY

On the downside:

  • 111.29-32. 200 hour MA and 50% retracement
  • 111.10: 100 hour MA and broken 38.2% retracement
  • 110.866. Swing lows from May 23rd and 26
  • 110.65: Swing low from May 30
  • 110.47: Low this week.

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Below is a snapshot of the strongest and weakest in the currency market today.