AMSTERDAM (MNI) – The Netherlands’ liberal party VVD has come out
on top in the Dutch national elections, according to an exit poll by
Ipsos Synovate.
The center-right VVD, led by caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte,
has won 41 seats in the 150-seat Dutch parliament, its highest number
ever, according to the Ipsos poll. The center-left Labour party PvdA,
led by former Greenpeace activist Diederik Samsom, is projected to come
in a very close second with 40 seats. If the poll proves accurate, both
parties would gain 10 seats compared with the current parliament.
The Ipsos poll was conducted at 39 polling stations around the
Netherlands. It has a margin of error of 1.5%. Preliminary results based
on actual vote counts are expected around 2200 GMT/1800 ET this evening.
Because the number of seats needed to form a parliamentary majority
is 76, the VVD and PvdA could govern together in a two-party coalition,
assuming the exit poll results are borne out by real votes.
However, it is possible that the social-liberal D66 party, with 12
seats in the Ipsos poll, could join with the two top parties in what
would be a repeat of the so-called “Purple Coalition” that governed the
Netherlands from 1994-2002.
According to the exit poll, the euro-sceptic socialist party SP
places third with 15 seats. The far-right anti-Europe Freedom Party
(PVV), led by anti-immigrant firebrand Geert Wilders, would get 13
seats, down 11 from the current parliament.
Turnout for the voting is about 73 per cent, slightly less then the
last elections in 2010.
Samsom’s Labour Party had made a strong comeback in the past couple
of weeks, surprisingly closing a big gap with VVD. Only one month ago
Labour had been expected to take only 20 seats, ten less then in the
current parliament.
The socialists, who had been riding high in the opinion polls,
moved in the opposite direction, declining sharply in the two weeks
leading up to the election. The socialists are projected to have won 15
seats this evening, compared with polls showing them with 34 seats a
month ago.
The probable result of the election makes it very likely that the
next government of the Netherlands will maintain a reluctant but
pro-Europe course, supporting the austerity policies championed by
Germany. The two winning parties – VVD and Labour – seem to have no
other option than to form a government together, given the number of
seats they will each hold.
The VVD leader and prime minister, Rutte, has harshly criticized
European rescue operations for banks and for peripheral Eurozone
governments, and he has spoken out against further European political
integration. But he is expected to prove less anti-European once he is
back in power.
The sharp drop in support for Wilders’ Freedom Party, which put
strong anti-Europe pressure on Rutte’s government, should be much less
of a factor in the new parliament.
VVD and Labour were also the biggest parties in the 2010 elections,
which Rutte’s party also won with a razor thin margin of one seat. The
two parties failed to come to an agreement then. Instead VVD formed a
minority coalition with the christian-democratic CDA, and with the
support from the Freedom Party.
That minority government fell last spring, after it was unable to
agree on the spending cuts and tax increases needed to reduce the Dutch
budget deficit to the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit by 2013. Shortly after the
government fell, an ad hoc majority of five parties, including VVD but
excluding PvdA, was able to agree on the necessary cuts.
While the “Purple Coalition” – VVD, Labour and D66 – seems quite
possible, the Christian Democrats, always anxious to be in power, may
not be very willing to participate in a new government after their
second big electoral loss in a row. The CDA is expected to lose eight
seats. Given the projected results, a government made up entirely of
left-wing parties or of right-wing parties is almost impossible.
According to eminent Dutch economist Bas Jacobs, only three Dutch
parties have an electoral programme that is fully consistent with the
long-term survival of the Eurozone: Labour. the Greens, and D66. But
together, they would not have a majority.
Rutte’s VVD opposes a European banking union and is against
transferring more sovereignty to Brussels. However. it is expected that
the liberals will take a softer stance in the new government. The
Socialists and the Freedom Party are the most anti-Europe parties.
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