Major currencies not doing a whole lot to start European morning trade

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

Narrow changes across the board so far today

WCRS 09-04
Most pairs are observing a <0.1% change against the dollar on the day, with USD/JPY trading in a 24 pips range so far. Price action continues to hint at tepid tones ahead of key risk events coming up later in the day:

OPEC+ meeting
This is the big one on the agenda today, with the meeting set to take place at 1400 GMT. At this stage, production cuts are a must to keep oil prices and risk afloat. Otherwise, there is going to be a major meltdown amid the disappointment.

The market should be expecting something around the region of 10 mil bpd but what is really priced in at this point? Anything better should see oil prices gain a brief reprieve, but any agreement will likely be sold into once the dust settles.

Eurogroup finance ministers meeting
After a 16-hour discussion yesterday, EU governments were unable to reach a compromise on a bailout deal with Italy and Netherlands proving to be the key instigators. Coronabonds remain the main issue and the meeting here will likely be yet another draggy affair.

However, given the stalemate, who really knows what could happen. Either way, the decision could extend into holiday-thin trading over the next day (Easter break coming) so just be wary of that over the next 24 hours. The meeting is scheduled for 1500 GMT today.

Fed chair Powell due to speak
Powell will be giving an economic update via webcast hosted by the Brookings Institution. I don't think there is much else to be said after recent Fed actions but just take note in case he drops any hints about the Fed outlook and what they are looking to do next.

There will also be a Q&A session after his speech so just take note of that.

US initial jobless claims, Canada employment report
At this stage, everyone expects yet another blockbuster number from the US on weekly jobless claims but once again, that may still play a bit with market sentiment as it will continue to give investors more food for thought - especially ahead of the long weekend.

The coronavirus trajectory showed improvement at the start of the week but any real turning point remains far away after data from recent days across the globe.

As such, this is more to do with a potential hit on risk more than anything else.

At the same time, there will be the Canadian employment report for March released as well. We are also likely going to see another blockbuster number there, with the change in employment expected to be -500K from the prior month's +30K.

For some context, the record jobs shed was 125K during the 08-09 crisis so the estimate above is set to quadruple that reading. 

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