That's less than expected

Mitch and Donny

Earlier today Bloomberg reported that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell met with White House officials and told them the bill on the next round of stimulus could approach $1 trillion.

Under normal circumstances that would be an insane number but in the current climate it's less than expected.

House Democrats already submitted a $3.5 trillion stimulus bill so that set the benchmark. It was never going to be that high unless the virus really hit the US hard but I would have pegged it a closer to $1.5-$2 trillion, given that states and local governments need a bailout in the $1 trillion range.

Moreover, the urgency to do the stimulus seems to have faded this week. On Monday,, a Fox Business report said it could come before the July 3-20 recess but McConnell reportedly said that won't happen.

After the jobs report Trump was floating a payroll tax cut and an infrastructure bill. Those ideas are going to be a tough sell.

Bloomberg cites ideas that were floated to Trump on Wednesday including:

  • Bank-to-work tax crets
  • A payroll tax cut
  • Liability protections
  • Special deductions for companies for restaurant and entertainment expenses
  • Chances to unemployment benefits

It's very tough to handicap what's going to happen but this round is going to be far more political than the last one and markets will be watching closely.