NEW YORK (MNI) – The 323,000 level for the annual rate of new home
sales reported by the Commerce Department Tuesday differed from the
average of entries in the ongoing three-month MNI Forecast Competition,
282,000, by 51,000. Forecasters see a flat no-change for durable
goods orders for April to be reported Wednesday morning.
Forecast contest participants had delivered their estimates for
new homes sales by noon Monday. Forecasts for the pending durable goods
report were submitted by 10:30 ET.
The next statistic after durables to be estimated is that for
next week’s report on April manufacturing ism on Wednesday.
The dealine for those forecasts is noon next Tuesday.
Friday May 13 the 0.4% increase in the April Consumer Price Index
differed from the forecast contest average by 0.1 point.
Thursday May 12 the +0.5% increase in April U.S. retail sales reported by
the Commerce Department differed from the average of entries in the
ongoing three-month MNI Forecast Competition, +0.6%, by 0.1 point, and
the increase for the April Producer Price Index reported by the Labor
Department was right on, at +0.8%, the 0.75% average contest estimate.
Each month until June 30, the three forecasters with the highest
scores will be awarded Visa gift cards worth up to $500. The three-month
Best Overall Forecaster gets $1,500.
May 5 MNI announced the April winners:
— Omair Sharif, RBS
— Fernando Melro dos Santos, Private
— Dr. Stephen Kirchner, UTS Business School
Other results so far in the competition have been:
International Trade Mar Bln$ -45.5 -47.7 -48.2
Nonfarm Payrolls Apr Chg in Thsn 206 185 244
ISM Mfg Index Apr Index 60.6 59.5 60.4
Durable Goods Orders Mar Pct Chg +1.1 +1.8 +2.5
New Home Sales Mar SAAR in Thsn 260 280 300
Housing Starts Mar SAAR in Thsn 485 525 549
Industrial Production Mar Pct Chg +0.5 +0.6 +0.8
CPI Mar Pct Chg +0.8 +0.5 +0.5
PPI Mar Pct Chg +1.2 +0.9 +0.7
Retail Sales Mar Pct Chg +0.8 +0.5 +0.4
International Trade Feb Bln$ -45.7 -44.0 -45.8
Participants can register for the online contest without cost at
http://mni.lumenogic.com/mni/login/login.html where there is more
information and a guided tour. The results will continue to be published
by Market News International.
The contest runs until June 30. The contest will decide who wins
the title of Best Overall Forecaster, the recipient of the $1,500 prize.
When the outcome of each economic indicator is published — the
initial release without revisions — each individual forecast will be
scored for how soon it was registered and for its accuracy. The total
score for every participant will be summed up on a monthly basis and
ranked in descending order.
Each month until June 30, the three forecasters with the highest
scores will be awarded Visa gift cards worth up to $500. The MNI
Forecast Competition outcome for each indicator, determined by averaging
all participant forecasts, will be published on the MNI Main Wire and by
MNI Bullet Points at least 12 hours prior to the official release time.
At the end of June, MNI will award the competition’s Best Overall
Forecaster award with a Visa gift card of $1,500.
The competition covers the following 10 U.S. economic reports:
International Trade Balance
Retail Sales
PPI
CPI
Industrial Production
Housing Starts
New Homes Sales
Durable Goods Orders
ISM Manufacturing Index
Nonfarm Payrolls
** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
