TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by MNI.

July industrial output, a coincident indicator of the economy, is
forecast to post a second straight month-to-month rise thanks to
expected gains in the output of semiconductors, information and
communication machinery and general machinery.

Economists warn that output may lose traction in the face of slower
global demand and due to an expected end this month to government
subsidies for buying low-emission vehicles, which have supported factory
production as well as retail sales and household spending.

The Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry revised down its
assessment last month, saying, “Industrial production appears to be
flat.”

On the price front, national core CPI (excluding perishables) in
July is expected to show the largest year-on-year drop since -0.7% in
March 2011 as lower gasoline prices appear to have more than offset
higher electricity charges.

The average price of regular gasoline in Japan fell 6.3% on year in
mid-July, with the pace of decline accelerating from -2.4% in mid-June.

Thursday, Aug. 30, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases July retail sales.

Forecast: -0.3% y/y in July, which would be the first fall in eight
months after +0.2% in June and +3.6% in May.

Friday, Aug. 31, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases the consumer price index.

Forecast: -0.3% y/y in July national core CPI, a third straight y/y
fall after -0.2% in June; August central Tokyo core CPI -0.6% y/y vs.
-0.6% in July.

Friday, Aug. 31, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases the unemployment rate and
the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare releases the ratio of job
offers to job seekers, both for July.

Forecast: Unemployment 4.3%, unchanged from June; the job offers
index 0.83 (83 job offers for every 100 people looking for work), up
from 0.82 in June and staying at the highest level since 0.83 in
September 2008.

Friday, Aug. 31, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases July household spending.

Forecast: +0.8% y/y in real terms, which would be a sixth straight
monthly rise after +1.6% in June and +4.0% in May.

Friday, Aug. 31, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases July industrial output.

Forecast: +1.7% m/m, which would be a second straight monthly rise
after +0.4% in June and -3.4% in May but weaker than METI’s forecast for
+4.5%.

Friday, Aug. 31, 1400 JST (0500 GMT): The Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism releases July housing starts.

Forecast: -9.5% y/y, in payback for a robust 21.2% gain in July
2011 and marking a second straight monthly fall after -0.2% in June and
+9.3% in May; a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 879,000 units, up
from 837,000 in June but down from 903,000 in May.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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