— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese industrial production appears to have posted
a fifth straight month-on-month rise, up 1.5% in August, according to
the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Market News International.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will release the data
at 0850 JST on Friday, Sept. 30 (2350 GMT Thursday).

The consensus call is lower than a 2.8% rise for August forecast by
manufacturers surveyed by the METI.

Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research
Institute, said that the inventory drawdowns seen globally in the IT
industry is putting a downward pressure on Japanese production.

Some data released recently suggest August output will show only a
modest gain.

The Bank of Japan’s real export index rose a seasonally adjusted
0.1% on month in August, posting the fourth straight m/m rise. But the
pace of increase slowed from +0.3% in July and +8.5% in June.

Demand for electricity from major industrial users marked the sixth
straight year-on-year drop in August, down 5.8%, with the pace of
decline accelerating from -4.7% in July and -2.8% in June. Firms saved
energy amid fears of power supply shortages in the summer.

According to the latest survey by the METI, August output is
expected to have been boosted by general machinery and transportation
vehicles (automobiles).

Output of general machinery appeared to have risen 7.9% m/m in
August, up from +0.5% in July, while that of transportation vehicles is
forecast to have increased 6.5% in August, also up from +5.5% in July,
according to the METI.

Looking ahead, Naoki Minegishi, economist at Shinkin Central Bank,
said, “Slower growth in emerging economies, the U.S. and Europe as well
as the lingering appreciation of the yen may dampen the production of
export goods from now on.”

Takehiro Sato, chief economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG, said output
in July-September is likely to show a 5.6% gain on quarter, posting the
first rise in five quarters, but he warned output in October-December
“can be lackluster” due to the slowdown mainly in industrialized
economies.

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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