— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted a trade deficit
worth Y220.0 billion in August, showing the first deficit in three
months, according to the median forecast by economists surveyed by
Market News International.

The Ministry of Finance will release the data at 0850 JST on
Wednesday, Sep. 21 (2350 GMT Tuesday).

21 out of 23 economists polled forecast that the August trade
balance would show a deficit, following surpluses in both June and July.

Hideki Matsumura, senior economist at Japan Research Institute,
forecast the August trade balance would show a deficit worth Y217.5
billion, as an y/y increase in imports, supported by surges in energy
prices, is expected have been above a gain in exports.

During the first 20 days of August, prices of imported crude oil
averaged $114.5 a barrel, up 53.3% from the whole month of August 2010
and up from $113.5 marked in the whole month of July, the MOF said.

Exports are expected to have risen 8.2% on year in the whole month
of August, the first y/y gain in six months, after -3.3% in July, -1.6%
in June and -10.5% in May.

Tetsuhiro Otsuka, senior economist at Mizuho Securities, said auto
exports would lead growth in the August, as the Japanese auto makers did
not stop their production even during their summer vacation.

In the first 20 days of August, Japanese exports rose 8.6% from a
year earlier to Y3.451 trillion, thanks to exports of automobiles, ships
and auto parts, the MOF said.

Meanwhile, imports are expected to have risen 14.5% y/y in August,
posting a 20th straight monthly y/y gain, following a 9.9% rise in July.

Imports rose 15.2% to Y3.973 trillion in the first 20 days of
August, thanks to surges in imports of energies, such as crude oil,
liquified natural gas and oil products.

Looking ahead, Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barklays Capital
Japan, warned that growth in exports may slow again from September
onward due to slowing in overseas economy.

The Group of Seven industrialized nations declared, “There are now
clear signs of a slowdown in global growth” at their meeting in France
on Sep. 9.

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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