— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is
expected to stay relatively high at 5.1% in December, unchanged from
November and October, according to the median forecast of analysts
surveyed by Market News International.
The ratio of job offers to job seekers at government placement
offices continued recovering gradually to 0.58 in December from 0.57 in
November, the survey showed, meaning there were only 58 job offers for
every 100 people looking for work but it would be still the highest
figure since 0.58 marked in February 2009.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will release
the unemployment rate while the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
will release the ratio of job offers to job seekers, both at 0830 JST on
Friday, Jan. 28. (2330 GMT Thursday).
The November jobless rate of 5.1% was below the record high of 5.6%
hit in July 2009, but still well above the 4.2% rate seen at the start
of 2009.
Meanwhile, the ratio of job offers to job seekers has been
improving gradually after hitting a record low of 0.42 in August 2009.
It is a coincident indicator for the economy and thus more sensitive to
a shift in the overall economic climate than is the jobless rate, a
lagging indicator.
The ratio has stayed far below a recent high of 1.08 marked in July
2006, when the economy was in the middle of the longest post-war
expansion from February 2002 to October 2007.
Mitsumaru Kumagai, chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Research,
said, “Jobs conditions have moved out of the worst stage, but the pace
of their improvement has been slowing.”
Azusa Kato, economist at BNP Paribas, said, increases in new
employment have been slowing as corporations have been holding excess
workers.
Looking ahead, Akira Maekawa, senior economist at Global Futures
and Forex, said, “It is highly possible that the pace of recovery in
employment will remain slow, due to the decelerating pace of economic
recovery.”
“The unemployment rate will drop to around 4.8% at best as of the
year-end.”
In contrast, the government is more optimistic about the labor
market in fiscal 2011 starting April 1. According to its economic
outlook for the next fiscal year, the unemployment rate is expected to
average at 4.7%, up from 5.0% in the current fiscal year.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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