— See Separate Tables For Details Of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s gross domestic product in January-March is
expected to have posted the first rise in two quarters, up a real 0.9%
q/q, or an annualized +3.5%, backed by consumption and fiscal spending,
according to the median forecast by 28 economists surveyed by MNI.
The latest median forecast is slightly higher than the 0.8% rise
q/q (annualized +3.4%) projected in the initial MNI survey of 11
economists released on May 2.
The Cabinet Office will release the Q1 GDP data at 0850 JST on
Thursday, May 17 (2350 GMT Wednesday, May 16).
The economy contracted 0.2% on quarter, or an annualized 0.7%, in
October-December after expanding 1.7% q/q (+7.1% annualized) in
July-September and slumping 0.3% q/q (-1.2% annualized) in April-June
2011.
In Q1 this year, personal consumption, the largest component of
GDP, is expected to have risen 0.7% q/q, thanks to leap-year effects and
government subsidies for buying low-emission vehicles, after +0.4% in Q4
and +1.0% in Q3.
Public demand is also expected to have increased 0.4% q/q on demand
for rebuilding the northeastern regions hit by the March 2011 earthquake
disaster, which would be the first rise in three quarters after falling
0.1% in Q4 and being flat in Q3.
Public outlays for reconstruction of the disastered areas have
totaled around Y19 trillion, equivalent to about 4% of Japan’s nominal
GDP, the Bank of Japan estimates.
Meanwhile, business investment, another major component of private
demand, appeared to have fallen 0.6% q/q, the first fall in three
quarters, after a robust 4.8% gain in Q4 and a modest 0.3% rise in Q3.
If the forecast for the Q1 GDP is met, GDP for fiscal 2011 will
show a slight contraction of -0.1% to -0.2% from the previous year, in
line with the government’s official forecast for -0.1%.
skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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