TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s Q3 GDP growth will be revised down to an
annualized 5.1% rise (+1.3% q/q) from an initial 6.0% rise (+1.5% q/q),
reflecting an expected downward revision to capital investment,
according to the median forecast of 20 economists surveyed by Market
News International.
The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) gross
domestic product data for July-September at 0850 JST on Friday, Dec. 9
(2350 GMT on Thursday).
The latest median forecast is little changed from the 5.1%
annualized rise (+1.2% q/q) projected in an earlier MNI survey of 12
economists released last week.
Preliminary GDP data released last month showed that Japan’s
economy rose a real 1.5% q/q in Q3 (an annualized +6.0%), posting the
first gain in four quarters.
Economists based their forecasts on the results of a quarterly
business survey by the Ministry of Finance released on Friday.
Capex will be revised down to -0.2% q/q from a preliminary +1.1%,
while the positive contribution of private-sector inventories to GDP
will be unchanged at +0.2 percentage point.
The MOF survey showed non-financial firm capex including software
fell 9.8% in the three months to Sept. 30 from a year earlier, showing
the second consecutive q/q fall after -7.8% in Q2 and +3.0% in Q1.
Forecasting GDP is not an easy job because the Cabinet Office
revises seasonal adjustments to past figures each time it releases new
GDP data, whether the preliminary or the revised series.
The government will also factor in changes in both prices and
industrial structure during a five-year period between 2000 and 2005 in
the revised Q3 GDP.
In addition, effective with the revised Q3 data, private capital
investment will include companies’ self-made software.
tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
