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TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s current account surplus for September is
expected to have stood at Y1.654 trillion, up 4.9% on year, reversing
from a 5.8% fall in August, a survey of economists conducted by Market
News International found.
The Ministry of Finance will release the data on Tuesday, Nov. 9.
Economists see the September surplus increase due mainly to sharp
rises in the trade surplus.
The custom-cleared trade data released by MOF on Oct. 25 showed
that the trade surplus rose 54.0% on year, thanks to strong exports of
automobiles, ships as well as iron and steel, and slower growth in
imports.
Overall exports in September rose 14.4% on year in September, the
10th straight y/y gain. Exports to the U.S., the EU and Asia rose 10.4%,
11.2% and 14.4% on year, respectively.
Growth in September imports was limited to +9.9% y/y, the smallest
gain since +8.9% in January 2010. Imports slowed thanks to lower costs
of crude oil.
The September price of imported crude oil was $76.00 a barrel, up
only 4.1% on year, slowing from +9.8% in August.
In contrast, the surplus in the income account, the largest
component of the current account balance, is expected to have shrunk
from a year earlier.
Masao Okayama, economist at Norinchukin Research Institute,
forecasts the income account surplus to be Y887.6 billion in September,
down from Y1.079 trillion a year before, as interest and dividend income
from Japan’s overseas investment has recently shrunk due mainly to the
yen’s appreciation against major currencies.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
