— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted a current account
surplus of around Y1.469 trillion in September, down 27.2% on year, a
seventh straight y/y decline after -63.4% in August, according to the
median forecast of economists surveyed by Market News International.

The Ministry of Finance will release the data at 0850 JST on
Wednesday, Nov. 9 (2350 GMT on Monday).

The expected smaller decline in the current account surplus is due
to an improved trade account balance forecast for September.

In September, the trade account balance is expected to have posted
a surplus of Y384.1 billion after marking a deficit of Y694.7 billion in
August.

But the trade surplus will be still 57.8% smaller than a surplus of
Y911.0 billion recorded a year earlier.

The trade balance in the current account is based on FOB (free on
board) for both exports and imports.

Japan’s trade balance on a custom-cleared basis — FOB for exports
and CIF (cost, insurance and freight) for imports — showed a surplus of
Y296.2 billion in September, down 61.8% y/y, as imports surged 12.1% y/y
while exports rose only 2.3%, according to the MOF.

In September, exports of automobiles and auto parts rose while
imports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas soared from a year
earlier.

Many of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors remained shut for routine
maintenance or due to the March earthquake disaster, promoting more
purchases of fossil fuels used at thermal power plants.

Meanwhile, the surplus in the income account, the largest component
of the current account balance, is estimated at Y1.309 trillion in
September, up 6.0%, posting a sixth consecutive y/y rise.

Looking ahead, Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central
Bank, forecast that the trade surplus “will remain at low levels” as the
strong yen, which pushes up Japan’s purchasing power, may encourage
firms to procure more from overseas and imports of LNG will continue
rising.

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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