TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
MNI.

Economists expect industrial production, a coincident indicator for
the economy, to show steady month-on-month gain in March thanks to rises
in output of electric machinery, automobiles and
information-communication machinery, signalling the Japanese economy has
been picking up steadily amid brighter prospects for global growth.

If the actual figure meets the median forecast, the January-March
output is expected to have risen 1.6 % on-quarter, posting the third
consecutive quarterly gain, after +0.4% in Q4 2011 and +5.4% in Q3.

Following the recent economic improvement, job conditions have been
gradually improving.

Personal consumption and retail sales are expected to show
significantly high y/y gains in March, in rebound from plunges of
spending seen in the same month of 2011, when the north-eastern part of
Japan was hit by the major earthquake and tsunami.

Housing starts are expected to have remained firm, thanks to the
government measures supporting purchases of greener houses and booming
reconstruction of houses in the desert-hit area.

Meanwhile, deflationary pressure is expected to have eased
somewhat, due to increasing energy costs and y/y gains in prices of
television sets.

Friday, Apr. 27, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases March Core CPI. Forecast:
National core CPI +0.1% y/y in March, staying in a positive territory
for the second consecutive month, after +0.1% in February. Tokyo core
CPI for April is expected to show -0.3% y/y, staying in the negative
territory, after -0.3% in both March and February.

Friday, Apr. 27, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases the unemployment rate and
the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare releases the ratio of job
offers to job seekers, both for March. Forecast: Unemployment at 4.5%,
matching the February figure. The job offer index at 0.76, up from 0.75
in February and posting at the highest level since 0.79 in October 2008.

Friday, Apr. 27, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases March household spending.
Forecast: +4.1% y/y in real terms, posting a second straight rise, after
+2.3% in February.

Friday, Apr. 27, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases March industrial output. Forecast:
+2.1% m/m, posting the first m/m gain in two months, after -1.6% in
February and +0.9% in January. But the median outlook is weaker than the
METI’s outlook of +3.4% m/m.

Friday, Apr. 27, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases March retail sales. Forecast: +9.8%
y/y in March, posting a fourth straight rise on the year, after +3.4% in
February and +1.8% in January.

Friday, Apr. 27, 1400 JST (0500 GMT): The Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism releases March housing starts.
Forecast: +8.2% y/y, a second straight rise after +7.5% in February and
-1.1% in January. Annualized housing starts is expected to show 875,000
units in March, down from 917,000 in February.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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