–UK Petrol Prices Rise 2.1% On Month In October
–Petrol To Add 0.11pp To UK Oct y/y CPI Change

LONDON (MNI) – Petrol prices rose in October, after four
consecutive monthly falls, and will add just over 0.1 percentage point
to the change in the yearly rate of CPI, according to the Market News
Petrol Price Index.

The MNI Index shows petrol prices rose 2.1% on the month in
October having fallen by 0.7% last October. As a result of that base
effect petrol prices will have a significant up effect on the October
CPI data, which is due to be published on Tuesday, November 16 at 0930
GMT.

With September CPI coming in at 3.1%, unchanged from August and 1.1
percentage points above target, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy
Committee could do without any fresh upside inflation pressure.

The Automobile Association noted that an extra 1 pence in fuel duty
imposed at the start of October has accounted for much of the monthly
increase, while oil prices have been volatile, moving higher before
seeing some sharp daily falls mid month.

National Statistics uses a monthly average for CPI fuel prices,
unlike for the vast majority of other categories, where it uses a single
day collection point and the Market News Index reflects this.

It is now based on average monthly data supplied by Experian, with
weights for various petrol categories, such as unleaded and super
unleaded, obtained from the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s
Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES).

The correlation between the MNI index and the moves in the fuels
and lubricants category in the official CPI data, which incorporates
petrol, has been strong in recent months.

Below are the results of the MNI petrol price index:

% change m/m 2010

! Oct ! Sep ! Aug ! Jul ! Jun ! May !
————————————————————————
MNI PETROL PRICE INDEX 2.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 -1.9 0.7
ONS FUELS/LUBRICANTS n/a -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 -1.9 0.3
MNI Index Contibution
to CPI y/y Change 0.11 -0.12 -0.08 -0.06 -0.24 -0.07
ONS F/L Contribution
to CPI y/y Change n/a -0.13 -0.08 -0.05 -0.23 -0.08

—London Bureau; Tel: +44207 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

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