Earlier: Goldman Sachs economists say global economic green shoots are emerging

More specifically on markets:

  • Goldman says they are still positive on risk assets, but do add that the upside is probably lower now that markets are more sanguine on recession
  • Keep a bearish view on the USD (cite Fed dovish)
  • on oil - pickup in global growth is modestly bullish (2-3 month view horizon, then bearish for balance of 2019)
  • US economy - says as drag from tightening of financial conditions eases
  • tentative positive signs of a turn around for China growth
  • Europe remains weakest region, citing Italy in recession, Germany close, other economies around trend. Now expect later ECB tightening, expect initial ECB hike from late-2019/mid-2020
  • Federal Reserve - lower chance of a move in the next 6 to 9 months. Would require a rebound in both growth and core inflation. Fed to announce in March that it will end balance sheet runoff later this year (likely September)

(bolding mine)