I posted earlier on the National Australia Bank's new GDP forecasts

More now (bolding for emphasis is mine

  • NAB Economics remain of the view that the recovery in the non-mining sector is slowly becoming more well entrenched
  • The RBA also appears cautiously optimistic on this front, pointing to above-average business conditions, growth in services sectors and "respectable growth in employment"
  • The change to our 2015/16 forecast largely reflects the incorporation of a more volatile quarterly profile - including a relatively strong bounceback in Q3 following a surprisingly weak Q2 due to temporary factors. This may also lead to some upward revision to the RBA's forecasts for the year to Jun-16 in tomorrow's Statement on Monetary Policy
  • It is also possible that the RBA will review its high GDP forecast of 3--4½ y/y for Dec-17, in light of Governor Glenn Stevens' stated lower assumption for potential growth of around 2.8%
  • The weak Q3 inflation outcome has also reduced our near-term y/y inflation forecasts due to base effects, and we anticipate a similar small downward revision to the RBA's forecasts tomorrow

More:

Challenges:

  • lower commodity prices
  • falling mining investment
  • slowing demand from China
  • consumer caution

Incoming information suggests a greater degree of resilience across the nonmining economy

  • High business confidence
  • Service sector generating enough jobs to unemployment rate steady around 6.25%

Forecast

  • continues to envisage weak domestic demand
  • A large contribution from net exports -mostly from resource exports (particularly LNG) as well as stronger tourism and other services exports in response to the weak AUD
  • Domestic demand meanwhile remains weak
  • The decline in mining investment is only about halfway through
  • Government spending will be limited given budgetary constraints and consumer spending is expected to growth at slightly below average (assuming a gradual decline in the household savings ratio)
  • A somewhat weaker dwelling investment profile in 2016 and 2017, although this is mostly offset by slightly higher (though still weak) non-mining business investment given the gradual trend improvement in capacity utilisation