I am not at all 100% sure that my timing is correct here but a picture is starting to develop which I hope will confirm my short Kiwi strategy. I think we have just seen the end of an ABC retracement off the .4900 lows and the fall which we saw last year is about to recommence. The A-wave took the market to .6625 in an impetuous rally, the B-wave consolidated above .6000, and now the C-wave has also completed its 3-wave pattern, topping out at .6820 after the NFP number last Friday. The C-wave also lacks the strength of the A-wave, signalling a tired market. If I’m right, this .6820 high will not be breached. Confirmation of my strategy will be a break-and-hold back below the .6625 pivot.
My stops are now in place. If we break below .6600 and the market can consolidate that break, then I go limit short with some trailing stops.
