NAB on the RBA - what to watch for a potential cash rate cut in July.

I've posted comments on the AUD and RBA from 3 of Australia's 'big four' domestic banks:

WPAC

• Outlook for the AUD - rallies to be limited except against GBP

ANZ

• ANZ on the RBA - rate cuts ahead on August and November

CBA

• CBA outlook for the RBA following this week's rate cut and yesterday's weak GBP reading

Rounding it up with NAB, in brief:

On Q1 GDP:

• data are slightly below (RBA) May forecast profile for growth,
• but recent comments indicate that it remains more focused on the unemployment rate, which has risen over the past couple of months
• After two large downgrades to its forecasts, in February and May, the RBA will likely be relieved not to make another major change to its growth outlook

We continue to forecast a second 25bp cut to the cash rate in August

• a rise in unemployment (next data for this is is due Thursday 13th June) would increase risk of an earlier July cut