National Australia Bank business confidence for November, 1

  • prior was 5, revised from 4

National Australia Bank business conditions for November, 5

  • prior was 13

Comments from NAB:

  • The fall in conditions was driven by all three components (sales, profits and employment), although the last remains the weakest, pointing to only very modest growth in employment – insufficient to prevent a further rise in the unemployment rate.
  • But while last months spike was relatively broad based, the pull back in November was much more mixed across industries – concentrated in retail, manufacturing and service industries.
  • We are yet to see any clear beneficiaries of the AUD depreciation.

NAB changes call on Australian interest rates, sees two cuts of 25 bps in March and August 2015


  • After cuts, expects RBA to hold cash rate at 2% until late 2016
  • Lowers GDP growth forecast for 2014-15 to 2.5% vs. 2.9% previously
  • Sees unemployment rate peaking at around 6.75%
  • Softer resource commodity prices in October to persist; subtracting A$20b from export earnings in 2014-15