NAB have revised their AUD forecasts lower,

They anticipate a rapid reversal of August moves “if, as we currently expect, Fed QE3 tapering commences next month”

NAB also note:

  • An RBA easing bias persists
  • A softer USD and a rise in AUD ‘fair value’ as US rates ease back,
  • Volatility indicators decline and metals prices lift off their recent floor
  • Somewhat stronger China data is helping
  • Green shoots of Eurozone recovery and a UK economy currently ‘on fire’ have driven our EUR and GBP forecasts higher
  • Say they remain short AUD/USD from 0.9210, stop at 0.9350 , have lowered target to 0.8600 from 0.88