Three of Australia's 'big four' banks have forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike earlier than 2024.
You'll recall that the RBA have said time and again that they do not see conditions likely to be in place for a rate hike until 2024 at the earliest.
Plenty disagree:
- CBA now forecasting the RBA to hike rates from November 2022
- ANZ's latest call on RBA rate hikes - beginning in H2 2023
- The labour market is tightening faster than we expected, potentially pressuring our call for a rate hike in H2 2023.
- More on Westpac forecasting an RBA cash rate hike in early 2023
NAB, though:
- RBA pushing back on hawkish notions with Assistant Governor Luci Ellis emphasising "achieving full employment is an important national priority" and that full employment is a pre-condition to having wages growth strong enough for inflation to be sustainably within the 2-3% target
- That speech came in the wake of some economists shifting to hikes in late 2022 and early 2023.
- NAB's view is that while we can see a probability of the RBA moving in H2 2023 and markets should price in this risk, given the high bar the RBA has given itself on wages growth being sustained at 3% plus, we currently pencil in 2024 as being more likely.
- Our view is also predicated on the RBA sticking to its recent evolution in monetary policy, that being trying to achieve the maximum sustainable employment by waiting for actual inflation to be sustainably in the band before tightening, instead of hiking on a pre-conceived notion of where NAIRU is.
ps. NAB referring to Ellis' speech yesterday, here.
