New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.1% expected

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Third quarter 2019 employment data from New Zealand:

New Zealand unemplioyment rate chart
Unemployment rate: +4.2%
  • expected 4.1%, prior was 3.9%
Employment change: +0.2%
  • expected 0.2%, prior was +0.7%
Employment change: +0.9% y/y
  • expected 0.9%, prior was 1.4%
Participation rate: 70.4%
  • expected 70.3%, prior was 70.2%
Average hourly earnings: +0.6%
  • expected 1.0%, prior was 1.1%
Private wages including overtime: +0.6%
  • expected 0.6%, prior was 0.8%
Private wages excluding overtime: +0.6%
  • expected 0.6%, prior was 0.8%
This report is on the soft side but only marginally so. The rise in unemployment brings it back to where it was in Q1 and hardly damages the long-term downtrend.

That said, the market is disappointed with the numbers because it tips the odds towards an RBNZ cut next week. Before the report the market was pricing in a 54% chance of a cut at the Nov 13 meeting. NZD/USD fell 20 pips on the headline but has recouped about half the decline.

Looking back ,the second quarter report was much stronger than expected and the kiwi jumped but the gains didn't last long. The pair gave up all the gains the next day (and more) and the slide continued until early October.
 
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