The fourth-quarter data from NZ was released earlier, weaker than expected:
My summary was the data is dated and the slide comes after a massive Q3 bounce.
BNZ pre-empted the data release with a sanguine view:
- the data are so dated that we find it hard to believe any sustained market reaction will occur
- The big picture is one of the NZ economy tracking sideways after the huge rebound in Q3, given the hit from a lack of global tourists and confidence being sapped as the country moves in and out of temporary lockdowns
Capital Economics are more concerned though:
- The modest solid decline in activity in Q4 reflects the fading of pent up demand and means that in New Zealand a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1
NZD dollar is little changed after its biog jump on the FOMC overnight
as a ps, more on the FOMC:
- Fed leaves rates unchanged with no changes to QE, as expected
- FOMC full statement from the March 2021 meeting
- The Feds central tendencies and dot plot for the March 2021 meeting
- FOMC full statement from the March 2021 meeting
- Fed's Powell opening statement: Economic recovery uneven, far from complete
- Powell Q&A: We want to see actual 'substantial progress' not just forecasts before taper talk
- Lovey-dovey FOMC, main points in summary
- Bank analyst says favours NZD, CAD, AUD after the dovish Fed
- Goldman Sachs' "bottom line" on the FOMC
