By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The week ahead will be very light, headed by
the monthly trade balance, the ISM non-manufacturing survey and Senate
testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Though the trade deficit results have been rather sporadic the past
few months, the details have shown a positive streak in exports, with
four straight months of gains. The relative strength compared to imports
has been the real dominating influence affecting the balance and last
month’s upside surprise was due to a larger boost in imports than in
exports.

The April trade balance report will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m.
ET.

The Institute of Supply Managers’ non-manufacturing index Tuesday
could negatively impact markets with a downside surprise, as it’s been
on a steady losing streak for the last two months. The forecast is
currently for a slight uptick, though these surveys are very difficult
predict.

The May ISM-NMI report will be released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Ben Bernanke will also testify before the Senate on the economy
Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET. As always, this will be worth watching for
any hints of upcoming policy action by the Federal Reserve. The general
tone of the chairman when discussing the economy can also send markets
racing in one direction or the other.

The Federal Reserve’s beige book report, what is essentially a
summary of economic strength as reported by the 12 Federal Reserve
distrcits, will also be released Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. Though the
report rarely contains any surprises, it has the ability to move markets
based on the tone of its assessment. In all likelihood, it will simply
state that the economy has continued to improve at a moderate pace,
though this will not stop observers’ proselytizing the Fed’s next move.

The final report for first quarter productivity may also be worth
watching, as it relates to demand for labor. The increase in consumption
combined with a slack in productivity could be considered a recipe for
jobs gains, so watch for any downside surprises.

The final Q1 productivity report will be released Wednesday at 8:30
a.m. ET.

Initial jobless claims, to be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m., could
once again make or break a trend, as last week’s figures showed a jump
to 383,000. This still lies well below the key 400,000 benchmark and
indicates an improving, though still sluggish, job market. The real
worry is that it could be the first of many stops on the way back up.

Other economic data for the week include April consumer credit on
Thursday at 3:00 p.m. ET, April factory orders on Monday at 10:00 a.m.
ET, May New York Institute of Supply Managers’ manufacturing index on
Monday at 9:45 a.m. ET, April wholesale inventories on Friday at 10:00
a.m. ET and the Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage applications
index on Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET.

Federal Reserve speakers for the week include:

Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Narayana Kocherlakota will
speak on economic theory in Minneapolis on Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET. He
will also speak on monetary policy transparency on Thursday at 1:15 p.m.
ET.

Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher will speak on “The
Limits of the Powers of Central Banks” in Scotland on Tuesday at 7:00
a.m. ET. He will also speak on the global economy in California on
Thursday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard will speak on the
housing market in St. Louis on Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. ET.

Chicago Federal Reserve president Charles Evans will speak on money
markets in New York on Tuesday at 7:15 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Federal Reserve president Dennis Lockhart will speak on the
economy in Florida on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET. and then again in
Georgia on Thursday at 12:10 p.m. ET.

Federal Reserve governor Daniel Tarullo will testify before the
Senate Banking Committee on Wall Street reform on Wednesday at 10:00
a.m. ET.

San Francisco Federal Reserve president John Williams will speak on
the economic outlook in Washington on Wednesday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Federal Reserve vice chair Janet Yellen will speak on the economic
outlook in Boston on Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. ET.

— Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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