By Theresa Sheehan

PRINCETON (SMRA) – The weekahead marks the end of the third quarter
Thursday. Friday, although the first one of October, will not see the
release of the employment report for September. That report is scheduled
for Friday, October 8.

As a result, some of the data that factor in to expectations for
payrolls and unemployment will be available relatively early. The
majority of the economic data will help firm up expectations for
activity in the third quarter, but will mostly refine what is already
known. Standouts are likely to be few.

No major central bank announcements are on the calendar for next
week. A few Fed officials will make public appearances.

There is a full data calendar next week, but relatively little that
has much potential to move markets, other than the ISM manufacturing
index at 10:00 ET Friday. Conditions in the factory sector have been
weaker of late, and the most recent surveys from the New York and
Philadelphia Feds signal that there may have been further softening in
September.

Three other Fed District Bank manufacturing surveys are set for
release in the week. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook is at
10:30 ET on Monday, the Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Survey is at 10:00
ET on Tuesday, and the Kansas City Fed’s Survey of Manufacturing is at
11:00 ET on Thursday. They are likely to tell the same story of
moderation in new orders and employment, slower shipments, and
relatively stable prices.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for September is
at 9:45 on Thursday. The index dipped in August, and was the lowest
reading in nearly a year. The September data probably will probably
continue to decline, although at a slower pace.

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index for August is at 8:30 ET
on Monday, and is mostly of interest to analysts rather than markets. It
has been indicating a slower pace in the economy.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for September is
at 10:00 ET on Tuesday, and the final Reuters/University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Index for September is at 9:55 ET on Friday.
Consumers remain wary with stubbornly high unemployment and limited job
prospects, as well as facing a need to continue to restructure household
finances.

The third and final estimate of second quarter GDP is set for 8:30
ET on Thursday. At this point the third quarter is nearly done, and the
second quarter data will largely be a footnote to the more current data.

Personal income and spending for August at 8:30 ET on Friday should
be consistent with modest gains in income, and restrained spending for
both durable and nondurable goods. The PCE deflator usually follows the
trend of the CPI, which was for modest increases in prices in the month.

Sales numbers of domestically produced motor vehicles in September
are expected over the course of the day on Friday. Sales were down a bit
in August, and may not improve significantly in September as consumers
remain reluctant to make large purchases. But the new model year
vehicles and big incentives may prove tempting.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July at 9:30 ET on
Tuesday is relatively old, but it will have more to say about changes in
home values in the months after the expiration of the homebuyer tax
credit program.

Construction spending in August at 10:00 ET on Friday will probably
get lost behind the other data in the morning. It will not provide much
that is not already known about residential properties other than for
spending on home improvements, but the public sector data will be new.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended
September 25 should continue to hover around the 440,000-460,000 range.
New claims remain elevated, if fairly stable, while continuing claims
are starting to work down as claimants either run out of benefits or
find work.

The Treasury will auction new 2-, 5- and 10-year notes on Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday, respectively, and all settle on Thursday,
September 30. The next round of coupons will be the final leg of the
third quarter refunding package. New 3-year notes, and reopenings of the
10-year note and 30-year bonds will be announced on Thursday, October 7.
The next refunding will be on Wednesday, November 3.

The press blackout period around an FOMC meeting is over, and
District Bank Presidents are out giving speeches again.

Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will give a speech
on the U.S. economic outlook at Sewanee University in Sewanee, TN.
Audience Q&A is expected.

Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota will be
in London to speak about the U.S. economy and FOMC at the European
Economics & Financial Centre Distinguished Speakers Seminar. Audience
Q&A is expected. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser will be in
Vineland, NJ to speak on inflation, the job market, and the housing
sector. He is also expected to address the exit strategy. Audience and
media Q&A is expected. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren to speak to
the Forecasters Club of New York.

Friday, New York Fed President William Dudley will address the
Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall conference at the
CUNY Graduate School of Journalism in New York, NY. Dallas Fed President
Richard Fisher will be in Vancouver, Canada to speak at the Vancouver
Board of Trade Distinguished Speakers Series. He will talk about the US
economy, recovery, and monetary policy.

** Stone & McCarthy Research Associates **

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