Preview with estimates for the July nonfarm payrolls report due on 07 August 2015 from Goldman Sachs and others.
- (Report due at 0830am Eastern Time ... 1230GMT)
Goldman Sachs
- At 225k
Cites:
- Many labor market indicators were softer in July
- But some important service sector indicators, such as ISM nonmanufacturing employment, were significantly stronger
- On balance, we expect job growth roughly consistent with the 223k increase in June
- We expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.3%
- Participation should at least partially rebound following an unexpected dip in June that likely reflected calendar effects
- Average hourly earnings are likely to rise 0.2% month-over-month in July
Morgan Stanley:
- At +200K
- The unemployment rate at 5.4%
Deutsche Bank
- July NFP estimate at +235k
That'd be the fastest pace since February
Cites:
- "consistent with the recent downtrend in jobless claims and our expectation that current-quarter GDP will firm"
(i.e their estimate for the current quarter GDP is at +3%)
- Says this "added growth must come from greater labor input"
And, more from DB:
- Estimates that the unemployment rate will fall under 5% by the end of 2015
- Little wage pressure at present, but this could change, with an acceleratin labor coasts as the labor market tightens further
Nomura:
- At 225k ... broken down to a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 230k workers
- Average hourly earnings for private employees forecast is a rise of 0.24% m-o-m in July, bouncing back from the weak flat reading in June
- Last, we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.3% as the drop in labor force participation in June appeared anomalous and could show some rebound in July
BoA/ Merrill Lynch:
- At +215K
- Unemployment rate steady at 5.3%
- 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings
