Jobs expectations via Reuters
Another NFP preview for us - check out Eamonn's preview post earlier here.
Reuters poll:
- market consensus for the headline NFP is a print of 145K, with expectations ranging from 85K (Natixis) to 216K (Parsec Financial Management).
- On average earrings the market expects a print of 0.3% m/m with expectations ranging from 0.1% -0.5%. The y/y projections are 3.2% y/y ranging from expectations of 3.1% to 3.4%.
- Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7% with expectations ranging from 3.5% to 3.8%.
If the US labour market shows weakness today this will raise the probability of a FED rate cut in October 30 to around 100%. It is currently priced at 90.3% according to CME fund futures.
The risk for this report is to the downside. A downside reading will result in more USD weakness immediately with USDJPY the most likely pair traders will short on a weak jobs print. I am also expecting gold buyers and oil sellers on a weak jobs print. Be prepared for today's highly significant US jobs print.
I also think the risk here is that a jobs number that beats expectations gets faded as the US slowdown narrative trumps any good news jobs number.
