-NIESR Estimates UK GDP Growth of +0.2% 3m/3m in Jun-Aug
LONDON (MNI) – The UK economy is expanding again, having contracted
for the past three quarters, according to the latest estimate from the
National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Gross domestic product rose 0.2% in the three months through August
on the previous three months having risen 0.3% in the three months
through July. The turnaround comes after a 0.5% quarterly contraction in
Q2 and a 0.3% contraction in Q1 and shrinkage of 0.4% in Q4 last year.
The Bank of England’s implied forecast in its August Inflation
Report was for quarterly growth of around 1% in Q3, with the economy
expected to rebound following the weak Q2 outturn, with the latter
impacted by the long national holiday weekend for the Jubilee and
exceptionally wet weather.
The evidence is mounting that there will be positive growth in Q3,
pulling the UK out of technical recession, but there is a lot of
uncertainty over just how strong that growth will be.
The August CIPS services PMI, published this week, spiked to 53.7
from 51.0 in July, pushing the composite, all sector, PMI up to 52.2
from 49.5 in July, taking it into expansionary territory.
–London bureau: +4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
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