Focus on the headline change, less on wage inflation.
For a few months, the market shifted its focus to average hourly earnings in a romance with wage inflation but the Fed has put its emphasis back on jobs growth, insisting that a tighter market will inevitably create wage inflation.
So it's all about the headline change, which is estimated at 228K. Then to a lesser extent the unemployment rate/participation rate.
USD/JPY indicates some late bets on a strong number after as the market pushes aside the soft ADP reading. If that's right, I look for continued USD/JPY strength and dollar gains versus the commodity bloc. AUD suddenly looks more vulnerable after the terrible Chinese trade data.
But the best trade of all might be short gold. A fall below $1175 could spark a rout.
Locked, loaded and hungry
