Non-farm payrolls preview: by the numbers

Author: Adam Button | Category: News
  • Consensus estimate: +90K
  • Private payrolls estimate: +102K
  • Prior: 69K
  • High estimate: 165K
  • Low estimate: 35K
  • 6-month avg: +174K
  • Avg of estimates released post-ADP: 99K
  • Avg miss in past 6-months: +/- 63K (+55K in upside misses, -70K in downside misses)
  • Past three reports all worse than expected (prior three all better than expected)
  • Unemployment rate exp unch at 8.2%
  • ISM non-manufacturing employment: 52.3 vs 50.8 prior
  • ISM manufacturing employment: 56.6 vs 56.9 prior
  • Philly Fed employment: 18.7 vs 10.6 prior
  • Chicago PMI employment: 60.4 vs 57.0
  • Challenger job cuts: -9.4% vs last June and at 13-month low of 37,551
  • Challenger hiring intentions: +12K vs +8K in May
  • ADP: +176 vs +100K exp and +136K prior
  • Initial jobless claims: 374K vs 385K exp and 388K prior
  • Claims 4-wk moving avg: 385K vs 378.5K at the time of the May jobs report
  • Consumer confidence ‘jobs hard to get': 41.5% vs 40.9%
  • Consumer confidence ‘more jobs’ avail in 6-months: 14.1% vs 15.4% (4 consecutive months of declines)
  • TrimTabs estimate based withheld income and employment taxes: +75K
  • Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index: +232K vs +104K six-month avg
  • April JOLTS: 3416 vs 3741 prior

I prefer to go with the ISM non-manufacturing employment index for direction and it points to something close to consensus or slightly higher. The lagging numbers point to a risk of downward revisions. Business Insider has a good collection of commentary from economists.

If you haven’t entered our non-farm payrolls contest, you can mark your (newly enlightened) estimate down here.

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