Preview of all the numbers that matter ahead of December April 2017 non-farm payrolls employment report:
The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, January 5, 2018:
- Median NFP estimate 190k (193k private)
- March 98K
- Highest estimate 232k
- Lowest estimate 165k
- Average estimate 191.4k
- Standard deviation 17.6k
- Unemployment rate exp 4.1% vs 4.1% prior
- Prior participation rate 62.7%
- Underemployment U6 prior 8.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 2.5% y/y vs 2.5% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.2% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior
Here's the December jobs story so far
- ADP 250K vs 185K prior (190K expected)
- ISM manufacturing employment 57.0 vs 59.7 prior
- ISM non-manufacturing employment not yet released
- Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 241K vs 241.5k prior
- Claims during reference week 245K
- Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 20.2 vs 19.6 prior
- Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring +229.7K
- Oct JOLTS 5996K vs 6177k prior
Out of all these numbers, the one that really matters is earnings. The Fed doesn't want to commit to hikes until wage inflation begins to kick in. There is talk, however, about a seasonal quirk that will lead to an uptick. I'm not sure what that is, but it could be to do with the way the days of the week fall because two of the past three Decembers have been soft and below trend.
On the jobs headline, it could be slowed by weather. December wasn't cold in the US but it was snowy so that could put a damper on hiring at the margins.
A Bloomberg analyst noted that ADP has exceeded 250K on 11 occasions since 2014. In all but one of those months, non-farm payrolls were above 200K. On the flipside, ADP has been particularly bad a predicting NFP in December, historically.
For another preview of the non-farm payrolls report, check out Eamonn's post.
