The non-farm payrolls preview for June 5, 2015 that sticks to the numbers:

Release time is Friday at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT)

  • Median estimate 225K (220K private)
  • April reading: 126K
  • High est 305K (Fathom Financial)
  • Low est 140K (Berliner Sparasse)
  • Avg of estimates made after ADP: 220K
  • Standard deviation: 246
  • NFP 6-month avg 254K
  • Unemployment rate est. at 5.4% vs 5.4% prior
  • Prior participation rate 62.8%
  • ADP 201K vs 165K prior (200K exp)
  • ISM May manufacturing employment 51.7 vs 48.3 prior
  • ISM May non-manufacturing employment 55.3 vs 56.7 prior
  • Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 27.3 vs 25.9 prior
  • Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 271K vs 277.8K at the time of the April jobs report
  • Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine demand for hiring up 83.1K in May
  • May 2015 US Challenger layoffs 41.0 vs 61.6K prior -- down 22.5% y/y
  • March JOLTS job openings: 4994K vs 5108K prior

    • This non-farm payrolls report has a bit less hype than usual but the data dependency of the Fed ensures that it's still a major release. The latest comments from Tarullo and Brainard suggest the Fed is beginning to sour on the US economy but that could change quickly on a strong jobs report with a lower unemployment rate.

    A few things stand out about this report but the big one is the tight consensus. The standard deviation is tight and that means far too many people are crowded around the 225K number. In turn, if the number is a surprise, the market reaction will be sharp.

    As usual, revisions will be a key factor so watch out for changes to April and also to March.

    Finally, I get the sense that the volatility this week has thrown traders for a loop. I also don't think traders wanted to pile into euro shorts ahead of non-farm payrolls but -- regardless of the NFP number -- they will be getting involved afterwards. Given that, my favorite trade is to buy the US dollar immediately on a good number and about an hour after the release if it's soft.

    Net change in non-farm payrolls -- expected at 225K for May

    Make sure to play our free non-farm payrolls contest and win a copy of Greg's book, Attacking Currency Trends.

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